polymarketfed
Will the Fed cut rates by July 2026?
64%
from 60% last week
Be clairvoyant
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A professional dashboard distilling daily, weekly, monthly and yearly trends from Polymarket and Kalshi, built for strategists, policy analysts, investors and decision-makers who price the future for a living.
polymarketBitcoin above $150,000 in 2026?41%-1.6pp
polymarketWill the Fed cut rates by July 2026?64%+1.2pp
kalshiRussia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement in 2026?33%+0.8pp
polymarketDemocrat wins 2028 US Presidential election?47%+0.6pp
kalshiChiefs win Super Bowl LXI?19%+0.5pp
kalshiUS recession declared in 2026?22%-0.4pp
kalshiS&P 500 closes above 7,000 in 2026?56%+0.4pp
polymarketWill an A24 film win Best Picture in 2027?27%+0.4pp
polymarketTikTok banned in the US before 2027?14%-0.4pp
kalshiLabour retains majority at next UK general elect38%-0.3pp
kalshiAGI achieved by end of 2027 (per Metaculus)?11%+0.3pp
polymarketTaylor Swift wins Album of the Year at the 2027 24%+0.3pp
polymarketBitcoin above $150,000 in 2026?41%-1.6pp
polymarketWill the Fed cut rates by July 2026?64%+1.2pp
kalshiRussia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement in 2026?33%+0.8pp
polymarketDemocrat wins 2028 US Presidential election?47%+0.6pp
kalshiChiefs win Super Bowl LXI?19%+0.5pp
kalshiUS recession declared in 2026?22%-0.4pp
kalshiS&P 500 closes above 7,000 in 2026?56%+0.4pp
polymarketWill an A24 film win Best Picture in 2027?27%+0.4pp
polymarketTikTok banned in the US before 2027?14%-0.4pp
kalshiLabour retains majority at next UK general elect38%-0.3pp
kalshiAGI achieved by end of 2027 (per Metaculus)?11%+0.3pp
polymarketTaylor Swift wins Album of the Year at the 2027 24%+0.3pp
№ 26 · Polymarket × Kalshi
the market
speaks first.
A professional dashboard distilling daily, weekly, monthly and yearly trends from Polymarket and Kalshi, built for strategists, policy analysts, investors and decision-makers who price the future for a living.
Movers by horizon
one screen,
four time-frames.
+4.5pp
kalshiukraine
Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement in 2026?
33%
from 30% last week
polymarketbtc
Bitcoin above $150,000 in 2026?
41%
from 39% last week
kalshirecession
US recession declared in 2026?
22%
from 24% last week
Categories
every beat,
priced today.
Sport, Movies, Music, Crypto, Stocks, AI, Politics, Climate, People, Social and more, each cell shows the average probability and how it moved this week.
Macro
43%
+1.2KS1PM1
Politics
43%
-0.2KS1PM1
Geopolitics
21%
+1.8KS1PM1
Tech
No active market
AI
15%
+0.8KS1PM1
Crypto
41%
+2.4PM1
Stocks
56%
+1.2KS1
Finance
No active market
Climate
29%
+0.1KS1PM1
Impact
31%
+0.4KS1
People
17%
-0.6KS1
Movies
27%
+1.6PM1
Music
24%
+1.2PM1
Sport
19%
+1.1KS1
Social
14%
+1.8PM1
Gaming
No active market
Lenses
Built for the
people who decide.
Choose your professional lens. The dashboard re-curates which markets, sectors and time-frames matter for the work in front of you.
Lens 016 sectors
Corporate Strategist
Macro, geopolitics, tech and finance signals priced by markets.
Rate pathAI capexTrade tariffs
Lens 024 sectors
Policy Analyst
Election odds, regulation and climate-policy probabilities.
Election oddsRegulatory actionClimate targets
Lens 036 sectors
Investor / PM
Market-implied probabilities for macro events, equities and crypto.
Fed decisionsEarnings beatsRecession odds
Lens 047 sectors
Comms & Brand
Cultural, sports, gaming and election trends shaping public attention.
Cultural momentsReputation riskAudience shifts
Lens 058 sectors
Event-driven Trader
Highest-volume, fast-moving markets across sources.
Top moversVolume spikesLiquidity
Lens 066 sectors
Creator / Gaming Lead
Releases, esports, streaming and platform calls priced by markets.
Launch datesConsole cyclesEsports outcomes
House view
how it reads.
Daily · Weekly · Monthly · Yearly
Switch horizons in a click. The same markets, recut to the cadence of your decisions.
Curated by profession
A lens for strategists, analysts, investors and communicators, not a one-size table.
Exec-ready reports
Generate a brief in seconds. Title, audience, top movers, summary. Markdown or PDF.
Share with collaborators
A single link to circulate the brief with your committee, board or desk.
Smart Alerts
Be the first to know.
Set thresholds on any market, any sector, any horizon. The second a probability crosses, you get a push with a one-line AI rationale. No more discovering a 9pp move when the meeting is over.
- · Probability above / below a level
- · Daily / weekly / monthly delta thresholds
- · Volume spikes
- · Browser, email, Slack, webhook
Intelligence desk
Clappy and the specialist agents.
A pool of editors trained on a beat each. Atlas reads macro, Agora reads politics, Neuron reads tech, Vesta reads climate, Muse reads culture and sports. Clappy is editor in chief and writes the rationale on every alert.
ClappyAtlasAgoraNeuronVestaMuse
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